Advancement in the Syrian Conflict: Rebels Intake Damascus and Force President Assad to Flee the Country

BY: KIA MOERK / STAFF WRITER

(Photo Credit: Samuel Granados / New York Times)

On Sunday night, rebel forces in Syria took control over the country’s capital Damascus, prompting President Bashar al-Assad to flee to the country.

After years of fighting, this marks a significant turning point in the long-lasting Syrian war and in the regional power structures. 

The conflict began in 2011 with pro-democracy protests during the Arab Spring but had been building up towards escalation for years prior.

President Assad’s government forces responded violently to these protests, and where neighboring countries saw government reformation, Syria saw an escalation of the situation into a civil war that has varied in intensity but has been consistent ever since then.

Assad has been the Syrian President since 2000, a position he took over from his father who had been the authoritarian leader of the country since 1970, when he gained power through a military coup.

For the current conflict, however, the main opposing parties are the Syrian government forces led by Assad, and various rebel groups, including Islamist factions and Kurdish groups. 

Additionally, external international actors have been involved. Russia and Iran have been prominent supporters of Assad, ensuring his continued position of power. On the other side, the United States has backed certain rebel factions such as the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Free Syrian Army.

The conflict, which has been ongoing for almost 15 years, has cost the lives of over 500,000 people. An approximate of 6.8 million people are internally displaced and 5.5 million have been forced to flee the country altogether. Major cities and important infrastructure have been devastated, valuable historical sights included.

To many, the sudden rebel advancement came as a surprise. The group took advantage of a strategic momentum to gain ground rapidly, moving south from the northwest, where they had already occupied territory for a while.

On their way to Damascus, the rebels captured strategic military bases and infrastructure. First, the rebels overtook Syria’s biggest city Aleppo, before advancing to Hama and Homs in just over a week.

The government forces of Assad were weakened and overstretched, making rapid advancement possible and successful.

Additionally, key allies of Assad, such as Russia and Iran, were occupied in other conflicts. The fighting with Ukraine has taken up much of Russia’s time and resources, and similarly, the regional tensions in the Middle East have made other regional actors put their attention elsewhere.

Given the rapid advancement of the rebel forces, President Assad was reported to leave the capital in the early hours of the rebel assault. Although his current location remains unknown, he is expected to have sought refuge in a neighboring allied country such as Russia or Iran. 

As President Assad has fled and the government has been overturned, rebel leaders have declared they intend to establish a transitional government. The leader is likely to be Mohammaed al-Bashir, who previously headed a rebel-run administration in northwestern Syria.

It remains to be seen what this government will look like and whether it will be more inclusive or objectively ‘better’ than that of under Assad.  

The recent events have caused mixed reactions among Syrians so far, some being hopeful that this might be a step towards peace while others are worried that it will fortify continued regional instability as new systems need to be established and in their fragility can be easily overrun by Assad and his allies or other interest groups.

Regardless of the eventual outcomes, the shift in Syrian power also marks a shift in the regional power structures. With the government coalition (at least temporarily) out of the picture, fighting erupted Saturday between Kurdish forces and Turkey.

The sudden power grab also has international consequences, shifting alliances and power dynamics in the Middle East as a whole country has shifted its people in power.

Moving forward, it remains to be seen how the rebels will grab power and whether they will be able to hold it. In a government vacuum, as is the current situation in Syria, there is a risk of power struggles. If contentions erupt between rebel factions, it might further put the country’s future and stability at risk.

Additionally, many are concerned the recent developments might bring on an even more serious humanitarian crisis in the region and that it will bring about a growth in extremism given the potential of ISIS and other extremist groups to exploit the chaos. 

Although opinions differ on the possible outcomes of the recent power grab, it is evident that it will bring about some degree of chaos and destabilize the region further, at least for a short period.